Better Than Nostradamus? Predictions Revisited

Revisiting 20 early predictions from last May. How did I do? I said then I was as steadfast as a politician making campaign promises. I only changed one before the season began (projected win total).

Lets take a look.

1. The quarterback depth chart will be Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell barring injury.

2/3 right? 1/2 right? It was 2/3 correct when the season started. Conservatively, 1/2 right. Who cares about the 3rd QB?

Score: 0.5

2. The Raiders will win nine games or more.

Close, but no cigar. I later amended this prediction to eight games, but I have to stick with my May prediction here.

Score: 0

3. Darren McFadden will have 1500 all-purpose yards

Nailed it. (Jack Black voice)

Score: 1

4. The offensive line will continue to be Achilles Heel of the team.

Debatable? Not in my mind.

Score: 1

5. The Raiders will have a top ten defense.

By yards, the Raiders ranked 11th. Again, I was very close. No credit for being close.

Score: 0

6. The Raiders will have a top 15 run defense.

Not very close. The Raiders ranked 22nd in yards/per carry against and 29th in total yards.

Score: 0

7. The Raiders will have a top ten running game.

Ranked second by total yards and second in yards per carry. Maybe I was too conservative?

Score: 1

8. Jason Campbell will improve on his 2009 season statistically.

Any chance of improving was derailed by his benching.

Score: 0

9. Rolando McClain will be the defensive rookie of the year.

I was drooling over Suh last May, this one was always wishful thinking.

Score: 0

10. Tyvon Branch will be a Pro Bowl alternate.

Missed it. He’s still a candidate to do it in 2011.

Score: 0

11. Stanford Routt will be a starting corner by season’s end.

Not only was he the starting corner, he played pretty well. Al Davis rewarded his play with a huge contract.

Score: 1

12. Bruce Campbell will be a beast on special teams, but won’t see the field as an offensive lineman very much.

Beast on special teams? Tough to tell. He played special teams. He didn’t see the field as a lineman much.

Score: 1

13. Nnamdi Asomugha will be thrown at more this season.

From 28 in 2009 to 29 in 2010. I’ll take it.

Score: 1

14. Richard Seymour will register more than six sacks.

5.5 sacks in 13 games. Prorated over 16 games that would be 7. Half point for prorated correctness.

Score: 0.5

15. Jared Veldheer will start at least one game at tackle.

Started one game at center and 10 at tackle. Projects as the starter at left tackle next season.

Score: 1

16. Cooper Carlisle will be cut before the start of the season.

Whiffed. He wasn’t cut and he started every game. He still wasn’t very good in pass protection.

Score: 0

17. Kamerion Wimbley will be the most productive offseason acquisition.

I think it is safe to say I nailed this one also. He’s now the Raiders franchise player.

Score: 1

18. Jacoby Ford will return two kicks/punts for a touchdown

This was a bold prediction, since Ford was a rookie. Aren’t you glad I was right?

Score: 1

19. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schilens will each have 50+ receptions.

DHB had 26, Murphy had 41 and Schilens had 5 receptions. 72 total. What was I thinking?

Score: 0

20. Michael Bush will lead the team in touchdowns.

McFadden had 10, Bush 8. Bush did lead the team in rushing touchdowns. Again, close.

Score: 0

OVERALL SCORE: 10 out of 20 with a couple close ones and a couple major whiffs.

Props to @PFF_Rick, who reminded me of these predictions and my relative success.

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  • @Kaspar_Da_Ghost It's a valiant effort, but could be too late. They'll run into biggest issue with funding since City won't play ball.
    about 1 hour ago
  • @Kaspar_Da_Ghost I don't really do the blind optimism thing. Lott's group has a ton of work to do and Oak city isn't that interested.
    about 1 hour ago
  • @Kaspar_Da_Ghost I don't hope for Vegas.
    about 2 hours ago
  • @AmyTrask @johnthebaines For sure.
    about 5 hours ago
  • @johnthebaines @AmyTrask In my case, I was including dividing growth of the pie. Some pieces more fixed than others.
    about 6 hours ago