Skip to main content

It's Time: 8 Wins or Bust

It isn’t easy to predict wins in the NFL a week before the game. It is just as hard to predict a final record.

Favorable analyst predictions include @Pschrags of Fox Sports , and @PriscoCBS and @Akbar_Gbaja of CBS.

Still, many are taking the wait and see approach to the 2010 Raiders. Who can blame them after seven straight losing seasons?

Everyone goes about picking games differently. Some people will analyze the matchups of each game and others will use statistics, cold weather games, travel time or some other metric.

There is no right or wrong way to predict a record.

My win prediction was 7-9 at the start of training camp reasoning that a legitimate starting quarterback alone would have tacked on two wins last season.

A lot of good things came out of the preseason and there were also a few concerns.

Was my original assessment correct or will looking at each individual game now that the preseason is over alter my prediction?

This time, I will predict the wins in decimal. A good matchup at home might be .65 wins (65% chance of winning). A bad matchup on the road might be .30 wins (30% chance of winning).


Raiders @ Titans
.32 wins

Rams @ Raiders
.79 wins

Raiders @ Cardinals
.44 wins

Texans @ Raiders
.55 wins

Chargers @ Raiders
.47 wins

Raiders @ 49ers
.42 wins

Raiders @ Denver
.47 wins

Seahawks @ Raiders
.72 wins

Chiefs @ Raiders
.62 wins

Bye Week

Raiders @ Steelers
.40 wins

Dolphins @ Raiders
.52 wins

Raiders @ Chargers
.38 wins

Raiders @ Jaguars
.49 wins

Broncos @ Raiders
.55 wins

Colts @ Raiders
.40 wins (Colts may sit starters)

Raiders @ Chiefs
.46 wins

Total wins: 8


Here is another way to breakdown the schedule.

Good Matchups (Play .750) – Win 3 out of 4
St. Louis, Seattle, Kansas City (2)

Even Matchups (Play .500) – Win 4 out of 8
Arizona, Houston, San Francisco, Denver (2), Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville

Tough Matchups (Play .250) – Win 1 out of 4
San Diego (2), Indianapolis, Tennessee

Total wins: 8


A break here and there is the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. Will this be the season when the Raiders catch a break?

The football gods have had their fun, it’s time for the Raiders to make a run.



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Oakland Raiders Swing for the Fences in 2016 NFL Draft

[embed align="center"]http://gty.im/153039819[/embed] These aren't your daddy's Oakland Raiders or even your younger self's Raiders. If anything, these are your newborn's Raiders or your puppy's Raiders. These are the Raiders we've never seen before. Indicative of the freshness of the franchise was their 2016 NFL Draft. No longer slave to a high draft pick and desperate needs, the theme of the draft for the Raiders was upside. It's as if general manager Reggie McKenzie got so used to hitting his draft picks out of the park that he started swinging for the fences. We'll have to wait a couple of years before we know if he struck out or if he'll continue his Ruthian ways. First, McKenzie boldly went with a safety at No. 14 overall. Kyle Joseph is coming off a torn ACL and fills a major need, but safety isn't a premium position. Only a handful of safeties have been drafted in the first 14 picks in the last 15 years and include names like Ea...

Oakland Raiders' Studs and Duds From Preseason Week 1

[embed]http://gty.im/484069738[/embed] The Oakland Raiders finally look like a competitive football team again. That should be the biggest takeaway from their preseason rout of the St. Louis Rams. Quarterback Derek Carr and the offense looked significantly improved from a year ago, thanks in large part to some of the studs listed below. The starting defense was still a little shaky, but there were still a few bright spots. Overall, the Raiders can feel good about their first live action of the year, especially since there appeared to be no significant injuries to come out of it. Studs Rodney Hudson Of all general manager Reggie McKenzie's offseason acquisitions, he committed the most money to center Rodney Hudson. Offensive linemen rarely get the praise they deserve, but a great offensive line as anchored in the middle can be huge for an offense. Hudson was very solid in his debut against a very good defensive front. If Hudson and the offensive line can consistently protect Carr an...

Preseason Week 1 Players to Peruse

[embed]http://gty.im/459756040[/embed] The Oakland Raiders season officially kicks off Friday night. Unfortunately, it's preseason. Fortunately, there are still plenty of things to watch. It seems like this every year, but this truly is one of the most interesting Raiders teams in years. For starters, there is a lot of young talent. Unlike past years, there is also plenty of veteran talent that isn't over 30. While all eyes will be on first-round pick Amari Cooper, there are at least a half-dozen other players Raiders fans should keep a close eye on during the game. D.J. Hayden He hasn't been able to stay healthy, nor has he been particularly awesome when he is healthy, but cornerback D.J. Hayden still has a lot of talent. General manager Reggie McKenzie will take his lumps if Hayden doesn't pan out this year, but more importantly the Raiders will also be dangerously thin at cornerback. The Raiders need Hayden to solid, even if he doesn't live up to the potential he...