It’s Time: 8 Wins or Bust

It isn’t easy to predict wins in the NFL a week before the game. It is just as hard to predict a final record.

Favorable analyst predictions include @Pschrags of Fox Sports , and @PriscoCBS and @Akbar_Gbaja of CBS.

Still, many are taking the wait and see approach to the 2010 Raiders. Who can blame them after seven straight losing seasons?

Everyone goes about picking games differently. Some people will analyze the matchups of each game and others will use statistics, cold weather games, travel time or some other metric.

There is no right or wrong way to predict a record.

My win prediction was 7-9 at the start of training camp reasoning that a legitimate starting quarterback alone would have tacked on two wins last season.

A lot of good things came out of the preseason and there were also a few concerns.

Was my original assessment correct or will looking at each individual game now that the preseason is over alter my prediction?

This time, I will predict the wins in decimal. A good matchup at home might be .65 wins (65% chance of winning). A bad matchup on the road might be .30 wins (30% chance of winning).

Raiders @ Titans
.32 wins

Rams @ Raiders
.79 wins

Raiders @ Cardinals
.44 wins

Texans @ Raiders
.55 wins

Chargers @ Raiders
.47 wins

Raiders @ 49ers
.42 wins

Raiders @ Denver
.47 wins

Seahawks @ Raiders
.72 wins

Chiefs @ Raiders
.62 wins

Bye Week

Raiders @ Steelers
.40 wins

Dolphins @ Raiders
.52 wins

Raiders @ Chargers
.38 wins

Raiders @ Jaguars
.49 wins

Broncos @ Raiders
.55 wins

Colts @ Raiders
.40 wins (Colts may sit starters)

Raiders @ Chiefs
.46 wins

Total wins: 8

Here is another way to breakdown the schedule.

Good Matchups (Play .750) – Win 3 out of 4
St. Louis, Seattle, Kansas City (2)

Even Matchups (Play .500) – Win 4 out of 8
Arizona, Houston, San Francisco, Denver (2), Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville

Tough Matchups (Play .250) – Win 1 out of 4
San Diego (2), Indianapolis, Tennessee

Total wins: 8

A break here and there is the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. Will this be the season when the Raiders catch a break?

The football gods have had their fun, it’s time for the Raiders to make a run.

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Twitter

  • @timkawakami I've been doing the same, Tim. Vocal minority of Raiders fans have trouble accepting the truth.
    about 16 hours ago
  • @DallasGCummings Indeed. Let me ask you something...curioues why you thought I was him?
    about 1 day ago
  • @DallasGCummings Same name; different guy. He manages a hedge fund & is a billionaire. I am a poor journalist. There's also the Dateline guy
    about 1 day ago
  • @DallasGCummings I'm a billionaire, so I could be doing a lot more for charity not there.
    about 1 day ago
  • Just found out I played in Richard Sherman's charity softball game. How much did they raise for charity? Also, how did I do? #itwasnotme
    about 1 day ago