It’s Time: 8 Wins or Bust

It isn’t easy to predict wins in the NFL a week before the game. It is just as hard to predict a final record.

Favorable analyst predictions include @Pschrags of Fox Sports , and @PriscoCBS and @Akbar_Gbaja of CBS.

Still, many are taking the wait and see approach to the 2010 Raiders. Who can blame them after seven straight losing seasons?

Everyone goes about picking games differently. Some people will analyze the matchups of each game and others will use statistics, cold weather games, travel time or some other metric.

There is no right or wrong way to predict a record.

My win prediction was 7-9 at the start of training camp reasoning that a legitimate starting quarterback alone would have tacked on two wins last season.

A lot of good things came out of the preseason and there were also a few concerns.

Was my original assessment correct or will looking at each individual game now that the preseason is over alter my prediction?

This time, I will predict the wins in decimal. A good matchup at home might be .65 wins (65% chance of winning). A bad matchup on the road might be .30 wins (30% chance of winning).

Raiders @ Titans
.32 wins

Rams @ Raiders
.79 wins

Raiders @ Cardinals
.44 wins

Texans @ Raiders
.55 wins

Chargers @ Raiders
.47 wins

Raiders @ 49ers
.42 wins

Raiders @ Denver
.47 wins

Seahawks @ Raiders
.72 wins

Chiefs @ Raiders
.62 wins

Bye Week

Raiders @ Steelers
.40 wins

Dolphins @ Raiders
.52 wins

Raiders @ Chargers
.38 wins

Raiders @ Jaguars
.49 wins

Broncos @ Raiders
.55 wins

Colts @ Raiders
.40 wins (Colts may sit starters)

Raiders @ Chiefs
.46 wins

Total wins: 8

Here is another way to breakdown the schedule.

Good Matchups (Play .750) – Win 3 out of 4
St. Louis, Seattle, Kansas City (2)

Even Matchups (Play .500) – Win 4 out of 8
Arizona, Houston, San Francisco, Denver (2), Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville

Tough Matchups (Play .250) – Win 1 out of 4
San Diego (2), Indianapolis, Tennessee

Total wins: 8

A break here and there is the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. Will this be the season when the Raiders catch a break?

The football gods have had their fun, it’s time for the Raiders to make a run.

Posted in Uncategorized

Twitter

  • @Caldwell_26 Presser tomorrow.
    about 1 hour ago
  • @HBNadolny Gruden doesn't make just anyone his QB coach.
    about 1 hour ago
  • Olson is going to be interim HC because he has connection with Gruden. If Mark can sell it, O staff can mostly stay intact. Best 4 Carr.
    about 2 hours ago
  • @DBarraza9 Can only grade Bergstrom. C-.
    about 2 hours ago
  • Yup. Made in China. RT @I3lazer: @ChrisHansenNFL the team is a 99 cents only store
    about 2 hours ago