Marshall Trade: Bittersweet

In the widely speculated trade of Brandon Marshall, the Broncos traded him this morning for a second round pick in 2010 and 2011 to the Miami Dolphins.

The initial impluse is to be glad Marshall is out of the division, but this is a bad trade for the AFC West.

What should be the reaction is: How did Denver managed to get two second round picks for Marshall?

Santonio Holmes was recently traded for a fifth round pick.
Career stats:
4 seasons
60 games
235 receptions (3.92 per game avg)
3835 yards (63.92 per game avg)
20 TD (.33 per game avg)

Roy Williams traded a year ago for first, third, and a sixth/seventh swap
Career stats:
6 seasons
85 games
319 receptions (3.75 avg)
4678 yards (55.04)
37 TD (.44)

Brandon Marshall traded for two second round picks.
Career stats
4 seasons
61 games
327 receptions (5.36 avg)
4019 yards (65.89)
25 TD (.41)

Marshall’s worth over Holmes:
1.49 receptions per game (~3 receptions over a 2 game span)
1.97 yards per game
0.08 TDs per game (1 TD more every 12 games)

Marshall’s worth over Williams:
1.61 reception (~3 receptions over a 2 game span)
10.85 yards
-.03 (About equal, basically equal to 1 TD every 3 seasons)

In what has been a wacky offseason, Denver was able to acquire quite a haul in a deal for Brandon Marshall considering his level of production.

Two second round picks is arguable MORE than what the Cowboys gave up for Roy Williams. (Second round picks in the 2010 draft are like first round picks in any other year and another second round pick is more valuable than a third and sixth round swap for a seventh.)

Marshall is more likely to make good on the deal for the Dolphins than Roy Williams has for the Cowboys, but perhaps not so much more than Holmes for the Jets.

While Raider Nation will undoubtedly believe the trade is sweet with Marshall is out of the division, Denver owning two premium picks could leave certainly leave a bitter after taste.

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