Picking the Studs Weeding Out the Duds

So I did some digging around on the WWW and found this article about bust percentages in the NFL draft.

Players Picked in First Round & Bust Percentages
OL — 70 – 31 percent
DE — 55 – 31 percent
CB — 52 – 29 percent
WR — 51 – 45 percent
LB — 48 – 16 percent
DT — 42 – 33 percent
RB — 41 – 49 percent
QB — 30 – 53 percent
S — 19 – 11 percent

According to these number there is a 34% chance overall. The author of the article was pretty accurate his selections could be guys such as

Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adam Carriker, LaRon Landry, Brandon Merriweather, Patrick Willis, Amobi Okoye

You could add to that Reggie Nelson who had a great year.

Apply these percentages to the latest Mel Kiper’s top 25, Mike Mayock’s top 20 and Scott Wright’s top 32 (26 made at least two of the prognosticators lists). I want to compare complete 31 team mocks (No NE) when I can get my hands on all three.

OL — Long, Clady, Williams, Otah (1 bust rounding normally)
DE — Campbell, Long, Harvey, Gholston, Merling (2 busts)
CB — Talib, McKelvin, Jenkins (1 bust)
WR — Kelly, Sweed, Manningham (1 bust)
LB — Conner, Rivers (0 busts)
DT — Dorsey, Ellis, Balmer (1 Bust)
RB — Stewart, Mendenhall, McFadden, Jones (2 busts)
QB — Ryan (53% chance to be a bust)
S — None (Kenny Phillips was just dropped off of Kiper’s board (So he is still a part of his top 32 I presume, therefore I can say with 89% certainty he will not be a bust).

Now for predictions:
OL Bust: Otah (Just a guess and a feeling)
DE Busts: campbell, Harvey
CB Bust: Jenkins
WR Bust: Manningham
DT Bust: Dorsey (injuries)
RB Busts: Jones (Numbers say two, but I disagree with the numbers in this case)
QB Bust: Ryan (Can you say INTs?)
S Bust: N/A

Posted in NFL Draft Tagged with: ,

Twitter

  • I'd like to know more about why he did it. Hope he uses other platforms to expand on it. https://t.co/uy1YKNUQPT
    about 2 hours ago
  • @TronDiction I don't see that as productive, but it's your choice.
    about 2 hours ago
  • @MissPaigeAlyssa Maybe wrong was the wrong word. It wasn't the most effective for an athlete with his platform in my opinion.
    about 2 hours ago
  • @TronDiction How so? I care about the issues or I really would care about his method creating more noise than action.
    about 2 hours ago
  • @TronDiction it's unfortunate that you are so quick to lump me into a category without even considering my point of view and how I feel.
    about 2 hours ago