Picking the Studs Weeding Out the Duds

So I did some digging around on the WWW and found this article about bust percentages in the NFL draft.

Players Picked in First Round & Bust Percentages
OL — 70 – 31 percent
DE — 55 – 31 percent
CB — 52 – 29 percent
WR — 51 – 45 percent
LB — 48 – 16 percent
DT — 42 – 33 percent
RB — 41 – 49 percent
QB — 30 – 53 percent
S — 19 – 11 percent

According to these number there is a 34% chance overall. The author of the article was pretty accurate his selections could be guys such as

Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adam Carriker, LaRon Landry, Brandon Merriweather, Patrick Willis, Amobi Okoye

You could add to that Reggie Nelson who had a great year.

Apply these percentages to the latest Mel Kiper’s top 25, Mike Mayock’s top 20 and Scott Wright’s top 32 (26 made at least two of the prognosticators lists). I want to compare complete 31 team mocks (No NE) when I can get my hands on all three.

OL — Long, Clady, Williams, Otah (1 bust rounding normally)
DE — Campbell, Long, Harvey, Gholston, Merling (2 busts)
CB — Talib, McKelvin, Jenkins (1 bust)
WR — Kelly, Sweed, Manningham (1 bust)
LB — Conner, Rivers (0 busts)
DT — Dorsey, Ellis, Balmer (1 Bust)
RB — Stewart, Mendenhall, McFadden, Jones (2 busts)
QB — Ryan (53% chance to be a bust)
S — None (Kenny Phillips was just dropped off of Kiper’s board (So he is still a part of his top 32 I presume, therefore I can say with 89% certainty he will not be a bust).

Now for predictions:
OL Bust: Otah (Just a guess and a feeling)
DE Busts: campbell, Harvey
CB Bust: Jenkins
WR Bust: Manningham
DT Bust: Dorsey (injuries)
RB Busts: Jones (Numbers say two, but I disagree with the numbers in this case)
QB Bust: Ryan (Can you say INTs?)
S Bust: N/A

Posted in NFL Draft Tagged with: ,


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